China Establishes FOB Sansha

ISDA – China’s decision to set up a military garrison on Sansha on the Yongxing Island (also known as Woody Island) in the Paracel chain along with creating a city administration could be seen as a step in firstly expanding its military reach, secondly strengthening its claims in the South China Sea, and thirdly countering the US rebalance towards the region.

Militarily, an established base could provide ‘depth’ to China in terms of defence, offence and increase in its surveillance range. The distance of around 350 km from Hainan and its geographical location in the North West of the South China Sea region provides the island a strategic location. It could effectively extend ‘Lines of Operation’ well south of Hainan and mainland China thereby enabling China to exploit the dictums of ‘sustainability’ and ‘reach’ both in the maritime and air domains in the disputed area.

Therefore, this island could well become China’s Diego Garcia in the South China Sea. There are some similarities between Yongxing Island and Diego Garcia that merit attention.

The runway on Yongxing is around 8,200 feet long and will enable operations of Chinese fighters such as the Sukhoi SU-30MKK. The map below indicates the area that can be covered by the combat radius of JH-7 and SU-30 aircraft operating from the island. Extension of the combat radius arcs shown in the map into a full circle indicates that China would be able to cover the full area of the South China Sea. Even though the runway juts out into the sea, there is the possibility of extending the runway by reclamation. This would depend on the topography and depth of water. The runway at Diego Garcia is around 12,000 feet long and has supported US operations in and around the Indian Ocean as well as other theatres.

The naval base at Yongxing has over the years been upgraded with the construction of a jetty of around 1640 feet and an anti-wave dike to protect ships berthed there. There are also, apparently, no limitations due to the depth for anchorage of large vessels like destroyers and frigates. The depth available could be increased for anchoring or berthing of larger ships by dredging. Diego Garcia supports both ships and submarines and both the anchorage and jetty are protected as they are situated in the lagoon.

The islands around Yongxing, which are under Chinese control, could be used as a station for monitoring maritime activities and also for intelligence gathering. Satellite pictures taken in 2008 revealed the presence of antennae indicating that the Chinese had set up a listening and monitoring station [1]. Radars would add to the network and make these islands a valuable communication node similar to Diego Garcia.

Till the time facilities are not constructed for basing of adequate numbers of ships and aircraft, the island could be used as a forward operating base. These facilities would include bunkering, ammunition depots, logistic and medical support, repair and maintenance, and accommodation. Although the number of assets would be limited due to space constraints, it would nevertheless be a valuable outpost. This much that can be inferred from the statement of Zhang Zhexin, a US studies expert with the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, who said that “China will certainly continue reinforcing its political and military control over Sansha as it has drawn lessons from maritime disputes in the past [2].”

Although the Chinese forward presence is considered ‘militarily untenable [3]’, it is highly unlikely that any one regional country has the capability of physically stopping China’s augmentation of infrastructure without engaging in a skirmish or military stand-off. They are at best likely to engage in rhetoric and lodging strong diplomatic protests. Any attempt to counter this action of China by means of pausing engagement or dialogue would only paralyse the progress made so far, no matter how miniscule. Efforts to increase aid and military assistance to the regional countries could also result in China hardening its stance.

As per Article 121 of UNCLOS which covers island regimes, an island would have to sustain human habitation or economic life in order to have an exclusive economic zone or continental shelf. While the limited land mass of Yongxing may not be able to sustain any such activity, the proximity of rich fishing grounds and potential oil fields would prompt China to stake a claim for the island’s maritime zones as per article 121. These maritime zones also include a territorial sea and contiguous zone. The mathematics are interesting as the land mass of around 13 square kilometres would accord jurisdiction over 2 million square kilometres of waters. This would push the 200 nautical mile limit of China’s EEZ (stipulated as per UNCLOS – see map below) outwards.

The inability of the ASEAN ministerial meeting to issue a joint communiqué at the recently concluded meeting of foreign ministers is indicative of the weakness of the concerned nations to join hands and take a multilateral stance. This helps China in its quest for bilateralism [4], an aspect covered by China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Liu Weimin during a press conference on July 10, 2012 [5] prior to the ASEAN foreign ministers meeting thus:

“The South China Sea issue is not an issue between China and ASEAN, but one between China and some ASEAN countries……. China is ready to peacefully resolve the South China Sea disputes through dialogue and negotiation with countries directly involved.”

Therefore, it is possible that China, taking advantage of the situation, is looking at an ‘island hopping’ strategy to strengthen its claims and presence in the region. Should China decide to set up similar cities and jurisdictions on other islands that it controls, it could cover its entire South China Sea claim as well as strengthen its presence in the area. This would complicate the US rebalancing strategy.

29 Comments

  1. Its odd how no one goes on much about communist expansion these days. Yet the West has redistributed a vast amount of wealth over to China enabling them to extend their reach. And who can blame them for wanting to control their own region? Slowly, slowly, one Walmart item at a time, one manufacturing job at a time…..could there possibly be a flaw in the free market philosophy? Hey invisible hand you just handed over a vast amount of wealth and power to our former enemies….what’s that all about? Hey invisible hand your underlying principle is “no one ever underestimated the public’s taste”, human greed knows no limits, do anything for short-term profits, make money by ridiculing and demonising and squandering the legacy of those that built the mighty West while developing an idea that a magic-negro will arise and make us great again.

  2. legacy of those that built the mighty West while developing an idea that a magic-negro will arise and make us great again.

    do you have your own office, or share one, in the hussein re-election camp there in kiwiland?
    there is nothing in his marxist ideology that ever intended the great satan to become great again.
    oh, that change thingy, yes, that was the one, change from great to pauper state. take the great satan down a peg or two. colonialist magpies.
    i bet your head was going back and forth, while you wrote that, just like you was reading from a teleprompter. that’s the only thing magical about that negro.

    Its odd how no one goes on much about communist expansion these days.

    i dunno. occasionally you’ll see someone write about slave labor. occasionally.

  3. nope, the magic negro is a plot device that only exists in Hollywood. The point I was making, obviously not very well, was that people have seen this miracle happen in so many movies that they expect it to happen in real life.

  4. The Free Market is the reason the West is far richer than its 3rd World counterparts. The fact that socialist giants like India and China are just waking to the benefits underlies the power of free trade. Are we selling them the rope to hang us? Only if they’re totally unconcerned about their own future. You don’t wax your best customer. They will continue to push and push in the South China Sea until some of their neighbors decide to grow a set and push back.

    We built the SR-71 in the early ’60s. We bought the titanium from the USSR. Was that a mistake on their part? Don’t know, the money was good, though.

    There are few forces in the world as domesticating as an emerging middle class. When people have something to lose, they are much less likely to take their neighbors apart with machetes. China is getting there, but I would imagine S. Korea could give them a run for their money as far as money and power in that area. When a couple billion Chinese finally have something to lose (30 million still live in caves) I think you’ll start to see some sanity come back to leadership. The Forbidden City, including the military, still think like pre-war Japan. I assure you the prosperous Chinese in the south do not share their lust for hegemony. They want a nice flat and a BMW, and they don’t want to lose it in a fireball the next day. Domestication does that to you.

    The Free Market domesticates. If you want examples, check out the hell holes without it.

  5. There are few forces in the world as domesticating as an emerging middle class.

    Well, that’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire in a nutshell really.

  6. I think you’ll start to see some sanity come back to leadership. The Forbidden City, including the military, still think like pre-war Japan.

    I haven’t noticed any particular lack of sanity in the present leadership. The Forbidden City is now just a museum but I assume you mean the secretive leadership. Pre-War Japan had invaded Korea, Manchuria, and defeated the Russians in the Russo-Japanese War. What has China done that equates to this?
    If you want to exploit resources in the region the building of military bases on strategic islands seems entirely sane. The British and Americans have been doing this for ages -- Acsension Island, Diego Garcia, Guam, Hong Kong, Singapore, Falklands, Hawaii, Gibraltar, Cyprus, Malta, Okinawa, Cuba and many more.

  7. Well, that’s Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire in a nutshell really.

    Wow. And here I thought Rome collapsed because of over-expansion, corrupt leadership and a lack of, or just plain bad morals.

    And all along it was just your average Roman who wanted a house, a family, and to be left alone?

    Is that what happened to the Nazis? It was their middle class, wasn’t it?

    Yeah.

  8. If you want to exploit resources in the region the building of military bases on strategic islands seems entirely sane.

    Of course, tomorrow we start building a base for our nuke subs on Taiwan. Next, we can start exploiting their resources.

    Not provocative at all. Just sane expansion that can never be challenged by the league of nations.

    Without a nuclear war. Makes sense.

  9. Wow. And here I thought Rome collapsed because of over-expansion, corrupt leadership and a lack of, or just plain bad morals.

    Seems you were totally wrong. They went soft = domestication. You know like sheep. Used Germanic mercenaries to do their fighting. Only trouble was their main enemy were Germans!

  10. Don’t quite understand your last comment T8. I thought it was a given that if you want peace prepare for war. America has invaded Asia several times over the last hundred and fifty years. Even had a hand in sacking Beijing. The Chinese must regard American accusations with astonishment.

  11. Is that what happened to the Nazis? It was their middle class, wasn’t it?

    Ironically their vision was to make all German citizens middle-class. A home of your own, a people’s car, annual holidays, freeways, jet travel and so on. All the stuff we enjoy today. Maybe you are right!

  12. Even had a hand in sacking Beijing

    The Old Summer Palace in 1860?

    … If so American involvement alludes me.

    Please expound.

  13. they just don’t build ‘em like they used to

    Built as a defensive barrier to keep invaders out, the Great Wall of China’s once formidable reputation crumbled away on Monday as a huge section of the structure collapsed.

    Bungling workmen digging up a square at the foot of the wall have been blamed for triggering the disaster at Zhangjiakou, in Hebei province of northern China.

    Locals also say a recent deluge of rain and additional major roadworks in front of the walls may have been a factor in causing the 100ft section to fall away in the early hours of the morning.

    article-0-1470670B000005DC-809_638x479.jpg

    A city official said: ‘There is an investigation into the causes of the collapse. A number of things may have contributed, including the building work.

    ‘But we have a conservation and rebuilding plan and it is already underway.’

    The original Great Wall dates back to seventh century China, but the section in Zhangjiakou was rebuilt more than 500 years ago in 1484 during the Ming Dynasty.

    The wall has been constantly rebuilt and repaired throughout history. An expert said: ‘Like any building project, some work lasts longer than others.’

    Still one of the only man made objects visible from space, the wall is made of stone, brick, tamped earth, wood, and other materials.

    It was built along an east-to-west line across the historical northern borders of China in part to protect the Chinese Empire against attack by various nomadic groups or military incursions by various warlike peoples or forces.

    Sections of the Wall north of Beijing and near tourist centres have been preserved and even extensively renovated but in many locations the Wall is in disrepair.

  14. Boxer Uprising

    On behalf of Chinese Catholics, French troops ravaged the countryside around Beijing to collect indemnities—and on one occasion arresting American missionary William Scott Ament who beat them to the punch in gathering wealth from some villages. Nor were the soldiers of other nationalities any better behaved. “The Russian soldiers are ravishing the women and committing horrible atrocities” in the sector of Beijing they occupied. The Japanese were noted for their skill in beheading Boxers or people suspected of being Boxers.General Chaffee commented, “It is safe to say that where one real Boxer has been killed… fifty harmless coolies or laborers on the farms, including not a few women and children, have been slain.

    The American commander General Adna Chaffee banned looting by American soldiers, but the ban was ineffectual.

    One witness recalled that “the conduct of the Russian soldiers is atrocious, the French are not much better, and the Japanese are looting and burning without mercy”. It was reported that Japanese troops were astonished by other Alliance troops raping civilians; Japanese officers had brought along Japanese prostitutes to stop their troops from raping Chinese civilians. Thousands of Chinese women committed suicide; The Daily Telegraph journalist E. J. Dillon stated it was to avoid rape by Alliance forces, and he witnessed the mutilated corpses of Chinese women who were raped and killed by the Alliance troops. The French commander dismissed the rapes, attributing them to “gallantry of the French soldier”. A foreign journalist, George Lynch, said “there are things that I must not write, and that may not be printed in England, which would seem to show that this Western civilization of ours is merely a veneer over savagery.”

  15. Just saying, Chinese military aspirations seem logical and understandable. If there is a dispute over islands then a powerful strike force nearby may avert hostilities.

  16. I read a comment the other day made by a German during the war in the East and it was, “They hated us and we hated them” referring to Russian villagers.
    It got me thinking about movies. Specifically that Chinese movie about the Rape of Nanking. In that movie the main Japanese character views the Chinese as if he were one of them -- he feels their pain and sees their beauty. With this plot device you get a double dose of sadness. Yet this type of depiction is unrealistic and somewhat manipulative of the audiences feelings.

    An interesting way to make a movie would be to have the scenes as seen from the opposing sides depicted entirely differently. The Chinese would view the Japanese as marauding monsters and themselves as heroic victims and defenders. The Japanese would view the Chinese as ugly out of control vermin and themselves as noble warriors. So when looking through the eyes of a Japanese soldier you would see a completely different landscape and faces than you would through the eyes of the Chinese. Because, you see, its all subjective. Depicting it any other way turns a movie into a piece of propaganda. Has any movie been made like this?

  17. is this the part where AA calls some of the chinese disgusting?

    Chinese General: Prepare for Combat

    China’s most powerful military leader, in an unusual public statement, last week ordered military forces to prepare for combat, as Chinese warships deployed to waters near disputed islands and anti-Japan protests throughout the country turned violent.

    Protests against the Japanese government’s purchase of three privately held islands in the Senkakus chain led to mass street protests, the burning of Japanese flags, and attacks on Japanese businesses and cars in several cities. Some carried signs that read “Kill all Japanese,” and “Fight to the Death” over disputed islands. One sign urged China to threaten a nuclear strike against Japan.

    Gen. Xu Caihou, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, considered the most senior military political commissar, said Friday that military forces should be “prepared for any possible military combat,” state run Xinhua news agency reported.

    Heightened tensions over the Senkakus come as Defense Secretary Leon Panetta arrived in China Monday.

    Panetta, in comments made in Japan shortly before traveling to China, said, “We are concerned by the demonstrations, and we are concerned by the conflict that is taking place over the Senkaku islands.”

    “The message I have tried to convey is we have to urge calm and restraint on all sides,” he said, noting any “provocation” could produce a “blow up.”

    Panetta repeated the U.S. position that it is neutral in the dispute over Japan’s Senkaku islands, a small chain of islets located south of Okinawa and north of Taiwan. But he also reaffirmed the U.S. defense commitment to Japan, a treaty ally.

    “We stand by our treaty obligations,” Panetta said, echoing a similar commitment made during a 2010 standoff between Beijing and Tokyo over the Senkakus. ”They’re longstanding, and that has not changed.”

    China claims the islands as its territory and calls them the Diaoyu islands.

    Last week, following the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the Senkakus from private Japanese owners, six Chinese maritime security ships were deployed near the Senkaku islands, further heightening tensions.

    Xu’s unusual comments followed reports in state-controlled Chinese media that opposed the Japanese government’s purchase of the three islands.

    Xu said during a visit to military units near Taiyuan, in the northern province of Shanxi, “efforts should be made to ensure that the military is capable of resolutely performing its duty to safeguard the country’s national sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity whenever it is needed by the Party and the people.”

    A U.S. official said the PLA’s most senior political general rarely makes such direct appeals to troops to prepare for combat.

    Panetta told reporters en route to Japan, the first stop on a three-nation visit to Asia, “The United States does not take a position with regards to territorial disputes.”

    In 2010, then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates invoked the U.S.-Japan defense treaty when tensions between China and Japan increased over Tokyo’s arrest of a Chinese fishing captain who rammed his boat against a Japanese coast guard vessel in waters near the Senkakus. Gates said the United States would “fulfill our alliance responsibilities” toward Japan.

    Japan’s Coast Guard announced on Sept. 14 that six Chinese maritime patrol vessels sailed into Japanese-controlled waters near the Senkakus and the vessels ignored Japanese warnings for the ships to leave the area.

    Other reports from China on Monday showed a convoy of hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels sailing toward the disputed islands.

    The six Chinese ships entered Japanese waters near the island on Friday, and ignored Japanese coast guard orders for them to vacate what it said was its territorial waters.

    The Chinese Foreign Ministry confirmed that six of its surveillance ships had entered the waters near the islands.

    China’s aggressiveness in maritime disputes has garnered little attention in the presidential election campaign.

    On Monday, President Obama criticized GOP nominee Mitt Romney for his attack on the administration for being soft on China through its weak response to China’s trade and currency policies.

    The Chinese maritime warships near the Senkakus were reported last week by Xinhua as “routine patrols” near the islands to “assert the country’s sovereignty and protect fishermen.”

    “The Diaoyou Islands and their affiliated islets have been China’s inherent territory since ancient times, and their surrounding waters are China’s traditional fishing ground,” the report said.

    A classified Chinese government map from 1969 that was obtained by Japan’s government shows Beijing had labeled the islands as “Senkaku,” their Japanese name, and thus confirmed their control by Tokyo. The map, which was viewed by the Free Beacon, also had a dividing line south of the islands showing that they fall within Japanese territory.

    Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R., Fla.), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said during a hearing last week that China’s behavior toward regional states was tantamount to bullying.

    “While the world’s attention was turned to other crises, including Iran’s nuclear program and concerns over the faltering Euro, China has upped the ante, playing the role of a schoolyard bully towards its maritime neighbors,” Ros-Lehtinen said.

    “From one end to the other of the South China Sea, Beijing has increased both in belligerence and bellicosity.”

    Ros-Lehtinen said the United States, through the Navy, will stand by friends and allies in the region.

    The Florida Republican said China is seeking to control the South China Sea and other coastal waters and sealanes because they are “central to the Chinese communist mandarins’ aspirations to re-establish the Middle Kingdom as the dominant power in Asia.”

    “Whoever controls these sea lanes can dominate Asia—and beyond—by choking off that commerce and oil shipments to the major stakeholders in the Asian economic miracle,” she said.

    Chinese efforts to dominate the western Pacific are increasing the possibility of naval clashes, Ros-Lehtinen said.

    “Other global crises must not distract from our vital national interests in the South China Sea and the western Pacific,” she said during a hearing.

    if japan knows what’s good for it, they better be looking elsewhere of support, and not depend on the US. hussein’s got an election to steal. he can’t be bothered with a bunch of fucking japanese.
    i’ll admit i’ve used ginormous numbers in the past, but can’t recall using the word “all”.
    it appears the chinese are using the same PR firm as the palestinians.

  18. Oil reserves at heart of Japan-China island dispute

    It all comes down to black gold. Anti-Japan protests erupted in at least 100 Chinese cities on Tuesday, as anger over a struggle for control of oil and gas in the East China Sea turned violent, and increased the tension between the countries.

    The focal point is a dispute over a remote island chain known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China, lying east of China and south-west of Japan (see map). The US handed them to Japan after the second world war, but China says that it has a prior claim. Japan recently purchased several of the islands back from a private Japanese owner, and their nationalisation has ratcheted up anger in China.

    “There is potential oil and gas,” says Pui-Kwan Tse of the US Geological Survey. It’s not clear how much is there, or whether it would be economical to drill for it.

    However, the East China Sea is rich in oil and gas reserves, many of which have only been discovered in recent decades. China and Japan are both eager to stake a claim: China’s energy demand is growing rapidly, and Japan’s reserves are limited.

  19. Is this the part where AA calls some of the chinese disgusting? louielouie

    All seems fairly logical to me. It’s certainly what I would do if I were in charge of China.

    dominate the western Pacific - check
    increase both in belligerence and bellicosity. -- check
    prepare for any possible military combat -- check
    re-establish the Middle Kingdom as the dominant power in Asia -check

    Its not like they’re bombing and strafing innocent women and children fleeing the Russian Red Army or anything.

  20. I see the Americans aretaking more of an interest in New Zealand:

    US wants NZ in strategic alliance

    From above:

    “Whoever controls these sea lanes can dominate Asia—and beyond—by choking off that commerce and oil shipments to the major stakeholders in the Asian economic miracle,” she said.

    It would seem a counter productive move for China to block commerce but possibly appealing for the US. I guess because the US choked off Japan’s oil supply before WW2 its something others may do although it is unlikely. Yet the dominant naval power in the region probably would desire the responsibility of policing the sea lanes and ensuring that commerce can get through and that especially oil can get through. Looking at WW2 would be a great motivating factor for China to seek to control the sea lanes so that others cannot choke of her oil supply.

  21. Its not like they’re bombing and strafing innocent women and children fleeing the Russian Red Army or anything.

    yet.

  22. US wants NZ in strategic alliance

    if you want to become an ally of the US, burn down our embassy.
    pick one.
    doesn’t have to be the one in auckland.
    if not, the US is just going to fuck you guys over like shithead in the oval office is doing the rest of the marble.
    maybe he can come to kiwiland and bow to your prime minister(head of state).

  23. We Kiwis are strong friends of the Americans. Always there fighting by your side. Its a throwback from the unwritten Celtic/Germanic/Anglo alliance, blood is thicker than water, thing. Not sure how much longer that is going to run for….

  24. Well, Obama’s clearly ashamed of it. Strong anti-colonial roots, he’s closer to Mau Mau than to Celtic/Germanic/Anglo.

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